Is the Maldives sinking? Sea level rise and climate change

“Sinking” is the wrong word. Maldivian islands are piles of sand and coral rubble on top of reef platforms, and those reefs are not collapsing. What is changing is the water level around them.

Global sea level is rising because seawater expands as it warms and because glaciers and ice sheets are melting. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says the rise has sped up, to roughly 3.7 mm a year between 2006 and 2018. That sounds tiny, and year to year it is. The concern is what it adds up to over decades, in a country where there is very little height to spare.

If you want the wider geography first, our guide to where the Maldives is and the atolls guide explain how the islands and reefs fit together.

Very low indeed. The World Bank puts the average elevation of Maldivian land at about 1.5 metres, with around 80% of the land area less than 1 metre above sea level. Total land area is under 300 square kilometres, spread across roughly 1,200 small islands.

What that means in practice:

• There are no hills to retreat to. On most islands, you are never more than a few hundred metres from the sea.
• Big swells, storm surges and very high tides can already push water onto low-lying ground. These events matter more, sooner, than the slow average rise.
• Fresh groundwater sits in a thin “lens” under each island. Seawater getting into it is a quieter threat than flooding, but a real one for island communities.

Sea level projections

The IPCC’s latest assessment (AR6) gives likely ranges for global sea level rise by 2100, compared with 1995–2014:

The IPCC also flags a low-likelihood, high-impact possibility of more rise if parts of the Antarctic ice sheet become unstable. Nobody can rule that out, and nobody can say it will happen. That uncertainty is honest, not a dodge.

Two things follow. First, the outcome depends heavily on how much the world cuts emissions. Second, even the low end is a large number for islands where most land is below 1 metre.

Coral islands can move and grow

Here is the part the headlines often skip. Reef islands are not fixed lumps of rock. They are built from sand and broken coral made by the reef itself, and waves keep reshaping them.

• Research led by Paul Kench and colleagues (Geology, 2005) found that islands in South Maalhosmadulu Atoll first formed around 5,500–4,500 years ago, when sea level was at or above today’s, and argued that this changes how we should think about their stability.
• A 2019 global review by Virginie Duvat, covering 709 atoll islands across the Pacific and Indian Oceans, found no atoll that had lost land overall and about 89% of islands stable or larger over recent decades.
• A 2023 study of 49 islands in Huvadhoo Atoll (Carruthers and colleagues, Frontiers in Marine Science) found that over 50 years, 53% grew, 25% shrank and 22% stayed stable, while local sea level rose.

These findings are good news, but they need care:

• Growth is not the same as height. An island can get wider while staying just as low.
• Much recent “growth” is human-made. In the Huvadhoo study, islands with reclamation and harbours were the ones most likely to grow, largely because people added land.
• Sand supply depends on healthy reefs. If reefs decline, the natural supply of new sand slows.
• Past behaviour is not a forecast. Faster rise in future could change the picture.

The honest summary: islands are more resilient than the “sinking” story suggests, but that resilience has limits and depends on living coral.

For most visitors, the climate change you can actually see is underwater. When the sea stays too warm for too long, corals expel the tiny algae that feed them and turn white. This is bleaching. Corals can recover if the heat passes, but long or repeated events kill them.

• 1998: the first mass bleaching recorded in the Maldives.
• 2016: the largest recorded. A survey by the Maldives Marine Research Centre and the Environmental Protection Agency, with IUCN, found about 60% of coral colonies bleached in the area studied, and up to 90% at some sites.
• 2024: part of the fourth global bleaching event declared by the US agency NOAA and the International Coral Reef Initiative. A peer-reviewed study of 18 reefs in central and southern atolls reported average live hard coral losses of over 40% in the central atolls.

Reefs matter well beyond snorkelling. They break waves before they reach the shore, make the sand islands are built from, and support fishing and tourism. A struggling reef leaves an island more exposed.

Reefs here have recovered before, and many sites still have plenty of life. But some look different from photos taken ten years ago.

The country is not waiting passively. Responses range from engineering to nature-based fixes.

Hulhumalé: a raised island

The clearest example is Hulhumalé, next to the airport and Malé. It is a reclaimed island built up from the lagoon floor, and the state Housing Development Corporation says it was raised to about 2 metres above mean sea level as a climate adaptation measure, with a wide coastal buffer on its eastern side. That is roughly double the height of most natural islands. Most travellers pass through or stay there on the way in or out; see our Velana airport guide and Malé guide.

Other approaches

• Sea walls and breakwaters around Malé and some inhabited islands.
• Raising and reclaiming land, though dredging and reclamation can damage reefs if done badly, which is part of the debate within the country.
• Protecting reefs and mangroves, which defend coastlines for free when healthy.

None of these is a complete answer, and each has trade-offs.

On a local island such as Dhiffushi, on the eastern rim of North Malé (Kaafu) Atoll, climate change is not an abstract topic. Islands on the outer edge of an atoll face the open ocean, so people watch the shoreline, the swell and the reef closely. Fishing families notice changes in the water long before they show up in reports.

You will not see dramatic flooding on a normal visit. You might notice a beach that shifts between seasons or rock defences in places. Ask respectfully and many locals will tell you how their island has changed. Our guide to Dhiffushi’s history and island life gives more of that background.

Rising seas are a decades-long issue, not a reason to cancel a trip. The question is how you travel.

• Don’t touch, stand on or kick coral. Learn to float before you snorkel over shallow reef. Our snorkelling guide covers good technique.
• Use reef-friendlier sun protection. A rash vest and leggings cut the amount of sunscreen you need.
• Never buy or collect coral or shells. Many marine products need a permit to leave the country, and taking them harms the reef.
• Cut plastic. Bring a refillable bottle and decline straws and bags.
• Stay on local islands. Spending money in island communities supports the people living with these changes. See our local islands guide.
• Think about the flight. Flying is most of a visitor’s carbon footprint. Staying longer and travelling less often makes more difference than anything you do on the island.

Our full responsible travel guide has more ideas.